Trudeau’s majority is built on a bubble

By breaking his electoral reform promise, he’s exposing his government’s flank

In his mandate letter to the new minister of Democratic Institutions, Karina Gould, Justin Trudeau told the nation that he was breaking one of his key election promises: “Changing the electoral system will not be in your mandate.”

Blaming a lack of consensus on reform, despite extensive consultations, Trudeau claimed that it would be harmful to Canada’s stability to pursue reform or a referendum on the issue. In question period, he added, “I’m not going to do something that is wrong for Canadians just to tick off a box on an electoral platform.”

His other comments implied that now that Canadians had a government with which they were happy, they were less interested in changing the system. But Trudeau’s remarks fly in the face of the truth.

The All-Party Parliamentary Committee which was tasked with recommending a way forward on reform said that “overwhelming majority” of submissions by almost 200 electoral experts and by thousands of Canadians were in favour of proportional representation. The committee itself recommended the government design a new system of proportional representation and gage public support through a referendum.

In terms of wider public opinion, a recent Ekos poll found that 43 per cent of Canadians said proportional representation would be the best option for Canada (higher than for any other option) and 33 per cent said it would be second best. The same survey found that 59 per cent of people think that the Liberals should deliver on their promise.

Why would the Liberals abandon their promise in the face of such stark evidence? They must feel they can get away with it electorally. They are riding high in the polls. Only one in five Canadians appeared to be engaged with the consultation process. They’re betting that most people don’t care. That gamble may come back to haunt them.

First, neither of the main opposition parties has a leader at the moment, so it is not surprising that they’re faring worse in the polls. It’s not guaranteed that either party will come back strongly with new leadership, but their public profiles and their ability to scrutinize the government will both be stronger when they are no longer concentrating on internal party politics.

Second, while the Liberals may be reassured by the fact that such a small percentage of Canadians was highly engaged in the electoral reform debate, it would make sense to assume that many of those engaged voters were current or former Green or New Democratic Party (NDP) supporters. Both parties have been advocates of proportional representation for a long time. In the context of the ‘Anybody But Harper’ election, some of them cast strategic votes for the Liberals at the expense of their beliefs, thinking that the next time around the electoral system wouldn’t force them into this situation. Tactical voters will be less likely to believe the Liberals a second time.

Third, while the Liberals are probably banking on most people forgetting the issue by the time 2019 rolls around, there is no way that Elizabeth May, the Green Party leader, will forget, and neither will the NDP after its extensive involvement in the all-party committee. Expect both parties to campaign heavily on the issue, with the added bonus of being able to repeat that Trudeau failed to deliver “real change.” Even the Conservatives are jumping on the opportunity to call Trudeau a liar, despite their stance against reform.

Fourth, although the Liberals won an impressive victory in October 2015, it’s worth remembering that their majority is small and built on fragile support. Forty three of the Liberals’ seats were won with less than a 5 per cent margin; the Conservatives came second in 20 of these seats, the NDP came second in 13 of them. Even small swings in the next election could have a big impact on the Liberals’ majority. The party is particularly vulnerable in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec, where most of their super-marginal seats are located.

Table 1. Super marginal Liberal-Conservative seats

Province Riding LIB CON Difference
Alberta Edmonton Mill Woods 41% 41% 0%
Ontario Hastings-Lennox and Addington 42% 42% 0%
Alberta Calgary Centre 47% 45% 1%
Ontario Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill 47% 45% 2%
Alberta Edmonton Centre 37% 35% 2%
British Columbia Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon 37% 35% 2%
British Columbia Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge 34% 31% 2%
Ontario Whitby 45% 42% 3%
Ontario Newmarket-Aurora 45% 43% 3%
Manitoba Kildonian-St. Paul 43% 40% 3%
Ontario York Centre 47% 44% 3%
Ontario Northumberland-Peterborough South 43% 40% 3%
Ontario King-Vaughan 47% 44% 3%
British Columbia Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam 35% 32% 3%
Ontario Oakville North-Burlington 47% 43% 3%
Ontario Burlington 46% 42% 4%
Ontario Richmond Hill 47% 43% 4%
New Brunswick Fundy Royal 41% 37% 4%
Ontario Cambridge 43% 39% 5%
Ontario Vaughan-Woodbridge 49% 44% 5%

 

Table 2. Super marginal Liberal-NDP seats

Province Riding LIB NDP Difference
Quebec Chicoutimi-Le Fjord 31% 30% 1%
Newfoundland and Labrador St. John’s East 47% 45% 1%
Ontario Kenora 36% 34% 2%
Ontario Parkdale-High Park 42% 40% 2%
Quebec Quebec 29% 27% 2%
Ontario Toronto-Danforth 42% 40% 2%
Quebec Riviere-des-Milles-Iles 32% 29% 3%
Ontario Davenport 44% 41% 3%
Quebec Gaspesie-Les Iles-de-la-Madeleine 39% 36% 3%
Quebec Saint-Jean 33% 29% 4%
Ontario Ottawa Centre 43% 39% 4%
Ontario Niagara Centre 36% 31% 4%
British Columbia Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge 34% 30% 4%

While not all Canadians are outraged that the next election will once again be first-past-the-post, the Liberals are taking a big hit to their trustworthiness. Perceptions of lies and broken promises will be harder to shake off in the long term.

Note: This article was originally published on iPolitics on 3rd February 2017.

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